A Very Different Beijing Games Begin

Here is today’s Foreign Policy brief: Beijing hosts Winter Olympics opening ceremony, U.S. officials accuse Russia of fabricating Ukraine invasion pretext, and senior aides to British Prime Minister Boris Johnson resign.

If you would like to receive Morning Brief in your inbox every weekday, please sign up here.

Beijing Opens Its Second Olympics

Here is today’s Foreign Policy brief: Beijing hosts Winter Olympics opening ceremony, U.S. officials accuse Russia of fabricating Ukraine invasion pretext, and senior aides to British Prime Minister Boris Johnson resign.

If you would like to receive Morning Brief in your inbox every weekday, please sign up here.

The 2022 Winter Olympics kicks off today in Beijing, and although many millions of people may be watching at home, the coronavirus pandemic and sparse diplomatic attendance list mean few will see the spectacle in person.

Even though the opening ceremony takes place in the same Bird’s Nest stadium as the 2008 Summer Games, the political atmosphere, like the weather, has changed significantly. Back in 2008, the Games were meant as a signal to the world of China’s ambition, and, as then-U.S. President George W. Bush’s attendance showed, it came at a time when the United States still saw China’s rise as inevitably bringing it into the liberal international order.

Since then, China’s economy has flourished, almost tripling its GDP, with life expectancy almost neck and neck with the United States. Alongside its economic might, China’s rapid development of high-technology industries, regional infrastructure investment, and military modernization push have shifted U.S. strategic thinking. In 2008, the United States was still guided by the war on terror. Now, rivalry with China is front and center of U.S. national security strategy, following former U.S. President Donald Trump’s great-power competition.

The popularity contest. That new reality ties somewhat into today’s audience of dignitaries—or lack of them. A U.S.-led diplomatic boycott—protesting the treatment of China’s Uyghur population and described by Amnesty International as a crime against humanity—has had relatively few public adherents. In a balancing act, major economic powers Germany and Japan are not sending diplomats but have been coy as to why. Others have the ongoing pandemic as an excuse.

Argentina, Russia, and Saudi Arabia are the sole G-20 representatives, and Poland and Luxembourg are the only European Union members sending diplomatic delegations.

Of course, a diplomatic boycott can’t be blamed for all of the world leaders staying home. For now, the rich world is still the cold world, as much of the global south won’t be represented at the Games. Indeed, less than half of those countries that competed in Tokyo in the summer have sent athletes to Beijing, and just five African countries are competing.

As FP colleague James Palmer observed in Wednesday’s China Brief, the empty seats match the empty shrug from locals in Beijing, frozen out of the Games over public health fears spurred by the omicron variant.

Those concerns will be minimal once today’s opening ceremony begins and the Beijing Games’ message comes through. As China analyst Christopher Johnson told the Wall Street Journal, it’s a relatively simple one: “We’re here. Get used to it.”

Ukraine sparring. U.S. officials warned Thursday of a Russian plot to fabricate a pretext for invading Ukraine, involving a Hollywood-level staging of a fake Ukrainian attack. The alleged plan, a carbon copy of one used in the 1997 film Wag the Dog, would have involved actors, blown-up buildings, and fake Ukrainian military equipment to convey authenticity. The Kremlin has dismissed the story.

The lack of evidence to back up the intelligence has become its own story, after Associated Press diplomatic correspondent Matt Lee’s repeated questioning of U.S. State Department spokesperson Ned Price was met with deflection.

Johnson’s troubles. Four senior aides to British Prime Minister Boris Johnson resigned on Thursday, three of whom appeared to have quit their posts largely due to their participation in controversial office parties and as an offering to Conservative Party members clamoring for a shake-up in Downing Street leadership. The fourth aide, policy chief Munira Mirza, left over Johnson’s comments earlier in the week, when he falsely claimed opposition leader Keir Starmer had let a known pedophile walk free during his time as a prosecutor.

Even if the clear out does take the heat off calls for Johnson’s resignation, a cost of living crisis looms next, with British households expected to pay 54 percent more for their energy costs from April onward.

The AU leaders’ summit. African heads of state and government head to Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, this weekend for the 35th African Union (AU) summit. The two-day event is expected to involve discussions on increasing COVID-19 vaccine access, the spate of recent coups on the continent, and a potentially fraught vote on whether to back a previous decision to accept Israel’s accreditation.

Costa Rica’s up-in-the-air election. Costa Rica’s presidential vote, set for this Sunday, is expected to go into a second round, with a crowded field of 25 candidates unlikely to produce a clear victor. The front-runners are uncertain, with almost a third of voters undecided ahead of the poll, which will also include legislative elections.

A computer error appears to have clinched victory in a crucial vote for the Spanish government in its attempt to reform labor laws and unlock billions of dollars in EU rescue funds.

A tight parliamentary vote to strengthen labor unions and worker protections passed Spain’s parliament 175-174, prompting the conservative People’s Party to challenge the outcome, claiming one of its members made a mistake. According to party spokesperson Cuca Gamarra, the member “voted no, but on the screen, the vote appeared as yes.” The People’s Party will now take the issue to Spain’s constitutional court.