Abiy Ahmed and Ethiopia’s Perilous Path to Peace

When Abiy Ahmed took office as Prime Minister of Ethiopia, he inherited a country beset by long-standing internal tensions, including an impending civil war in the Tigray region. Abiy’s initial approach to crack down on the Tigrayyan People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), the dominant party in Ethiopian politics over the past thirty years, ended in a brutal and protracted conflict with far-reaching consequences for the country’s political and economic infrastructure. Through the support of neighboring strongman and autocratic Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki, as well as Turkey, China and the United Arab Emirates, Abiy was ultimately victorious, but not without significant costs. As Ethiopia grapples with enduring tensions and internal conflicts, and Abiy seeks to establish a lasting legacy as a peacemaker, the role of regional actors, including Afwerki, is emerging as a key factor in the country’s stability.

In April 2018, when Abiy became prime minister of Ethiopia, he faced a challenge Management A country on the brink of civil war. His predecessor, Hailemariam Desalegn, resigned. barrier, paving the way for Abiy to make history as Ethiopia’s first Oromo prime minister. As an ethnic Oromo married to an Amhara wife, Abi was with enthusiasm Well received by the wider Oromo community, showing their satisfaction with Ethiopia’s political trajectory by showing up in large numbers in the streets. In 2019, Abiy was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for his role in ending a twenty-year conflict with neighboring Eritrea.

However, Abiy’s rise to power coincided with deep tensions between the Ethiopian government and the TPLF. when they started hoof In opposition to Tigran’s officials who held powerful positions in the government of Ethiopia, he faced many assassination attempts As a result. rising tensions eventually led to Election A controversial display of TLPF autonomy from the central government in Addis Ababa in September 2020. The Ethiopian government deemed the move illegal, and in November of that year, the TPLF attacked the Northern Command of the Ethiopian Army, triggering the Tigray War.

Initially, the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) overran the TPLF and ousted the rebels from Mekelle, the capital of the Tigrayan region. TPLF, however, is resorting to the classic guerrilla The strategy is to engage in a game of cat and mouse with the ENDF. ENDF’s frustration with the dogma of the Tigray people, a tight-knit, highly politicized conscious The society caused the full wrath of its power over the citizens in Tigray. There were widespread cases of rape, torture and extrajudicial killings. Document by international human rights organizations.

In June 2021, the TPLF retook Mekelle, and in November of that year, it announced it would advance towards Addis Ababa, the capital of Ethiopia. During that period, the TPLF’s brutal retaliation for the ENDF’s capture of Mekele spread to new areas in the Amhara and Afar regions, where it launched large-scale operations. Atrocity Against civilians with almost equal measure. Abiy temporarily handed over his duties as Prime Minister of Ethiopia to his deputy and led the army himself. With Turkish and Chinese drones and Eritrean troops on the ground, the ENDF launched a blitzkrieg against the TPLF, which the TPLF had captured on only three days in the previous three months.

This time, Abi demonstrated an ability to learn from past missteps. Notably, during the 2020 incident where the ENDF took over the TPLF, the Ethiopian government was reluctant to accept any possibility for third-party mediation and failed to capitalize on the momentum conducive to establishing a peace agreement. However, during subsequent events, the Ethiopian government indicated a willingness to consider a peace settlement with the African Union. Leadership by Olusegun Obasanjo, former President of Nigeria, as mediator. The African Union acted swiftly, organizing a peace conference in Pretoria, South Africa in November 2022, almost two years after the start of hostilities, and inviting representatives from both the TPLF and the Ethiopian government. Subsequent rounds of negotiations emerged as a result of the peace conference, eventually contributing to the easing of tensions and the TPLF surrendering its heavy weapons in January 2023.

This recent chapter in Ethiopia’s historical narrative marks an important and transformative moment, one characterized by a departure from the country’s violent past. Ethiopia has been wracked by intermittent civil conflicts that rarely happen Solved in peaceful ways. Emperor Haile Selassie’s reign was tumultuous during the 1930s, culminating in his alleged assassination by order of Mengistu Haile Mariam, who led a military coup in 1975 to overthrow the emperor. In the 1990s, Mengistu himself was forced to flee the country after being ousted from power by a rebel group led by the TPLF. Furthermore, the unexpected death of Meles Zenawi, Ethiopia’s first prime minister since the 1990s, left a leadership void in 2012, and concerns emerged over a peaceful transition of power. Zenawi’s successor Hailemariam Desalegn resigned under the weight of the TPLF’s reluctance to relinquish its hold on power, thus passing the baton to Abiy Ahmed. Abiy’s approach to peace in Ethiopian politics is unique in that it effectively reconciled the opposing factions, a feat that had never before been accomplished in the country’s history.

Nonetheless, despite the success of Abiy’s innovative approach to peace in Ethiopian politics, it is uncertain whether his efforts have earned the approval of his Eritrean colleague, Afwerki. Afwerki’s deep-seated personal hatred The 1998 war between Ethiopia and Eritrea began on the TPLF side. Furthermore, the recent loss of power by the President of Somalia, Mohamed Abdullahi Farmajo, to Hassan Sheikh Mohamad in May 2022 has weakened Afwerki’s position in East Africa. Farmazzo had Farming a special relationship with Afwerki, an arrangement that was not welcomed Djibouti, a neighboring country with linguistic, ethnic and religious ties to Somalia, and part of whose land has been annexed by Eritrea since 2008. With the changing political dynamics in the region, the departure of Farmajo and the emergence of a new alliance between Ethiopia, Djibouti and Kenya under the banner of “Somalia’s Frontline State Summitin Mogadishu in February 2023, could marginalize the tripartite alliance between Ethiopia, Eritrea and Somalia that was formed during Farmajo’s time in office, thus further alienating Afwerki. Such a development may encourage Afwerki to work against Ethiopia’s peace process, reducing the chances of lasting peace in the region.

Despite Abi’s apparent consolidation of power in Ethiopia, deep-rooted insurgency remains in many parts of the country, creating a potential opportunity for Afwerki to exploit and undermine Abi’s stability efforts. In Oromia, for example, the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) continues mount attack On the ENDF, sometimes gaining control of territories. Similarly, there are unresolved disputes between the Afar and Somali ethnic groups, which have escalated since the outbreak of the Tigray conflict. Armed Afar groups armed with ENDF weapons have seized Somali towns that they historically believe to belong to the Afar, massacring civilians, especially women and children. Furthermore, the Amhara militia group known as FANO, which played a key role in the struggle against the TPLF, is not in a completely Stable relationship with Abi. Additionally, recent tensions between the Ethiopian Orthodox Church and members of the Oromo ethnic group could open new frontiers of religious tension in the country. These lingering tensions provide Afwerki with the opportunity to intervene in Ethiopia’s internal affairs and maintain control over Abiy, who takes advantage of any perceived lapses in his leadership.

The recent successful negotiations involving the TPLF surrendering its heavy weapons and de-escalating the Tigray conflict are important steps in Ethiopia’s journey towards stability. The African Union’s mediation efforts, combined with the Ethiopian government’s willingness to consider third-party intervention, proved a winning combination. The strategy employed in this situation could serve as a model for resolving other ongoing conflicts in Ethiopia, such as tensions between the OLA, FANO, Afar and Somali ethnic groups, and issues related to the country’s religious groups. By establishing a uniform framework of transparency and simplicity in these situations, Ethiopia can create a bulwark for peace and fend off attempts to undermine its trajectory toward stability. The African Union and the Ethiopian government should work together to ensure that the lessons learned from the Tigray conflict are applied to other conflicts in the country, to ensure that Ethiopia continues on the path of peace and stability.

Ethiopia’s quest for stability has undergone significant changes under Abiy’s leadership. The Nobel laureate’s unorthodox path from a peacemaker to a war leader has raised questions about the stability of his leadership and opened the door for Afwerki exploit Ethiopia’s underlying tensions. Furthermore, Abiy’s pragmatic approach to emerging regional alliances has significant implications for Ethiopia and the region at large, which could define his rule for years to come.

Mahad D. Darar is an academic based in Colorado, USA. Shri Dar holds a bachelor’s degree in International Relations and Conflict Resolution. His research focuses on the Middle East and East African region. Follow him on Twitter at @organizermahad.

Image: Alexandros Michaelidis / shutterstock.com

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