Can the African Union solve Ethiopia’s year-long conflict? | News | Ethiopiaforums.com

More than a year into Ethiopia’s war, shuttle diplomacy by leaders from far and near has failed to produce any tangible results for millions in the country and beyond waiting for the guns to go silent.

In recent weeks, the African Union (AU) has called for an end to hostilities and the descent into “escalation of civil war“Which could further destabilize the wider region.

The continental bloc, headquartered in Ethiopia’s capital Addis Ababa, had appointed three former presidents – Mozambique’s Joaquim Chisano, Ellen Johnson Sirleaf from Liberia and South Africa’s Kaglema Motlanthe – as envoys to mediate the conflict that began in November 2020. In form of. Forces loyal to the federal government and the Tigre People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) in the northern Tigre region.

The appointment of the high-profile officials was welcomed by then UN chief Antonio Guterres, who called it an “initiative for peace”. However, all three could not achieve any success even after months of talks.

In August, the AU appointed former Nigerian President Olesgun Obasanjo as special envoy to the Horn of Africa, in the hope that he would have better luck in striking a deal between the warring sides.

On Sunday, after holding several meetings with the government and Tigreyan leaders, Obasanjo said he hoped the talks could end the violence that has spread beyond Tigre in recent months, with Tigreyan forces and their allies now A march towards Addis Ababa has been threatened.

“There is no military solution to the conflict and a battlefield victory cannot guarantee political stability in Ethiopia,” Obasanjo said in a statement, urging all sides to stop their military crimes. “This will give the conversation an opportunity to continue progressing. Such talks cannot take place in an environment of heightened military hostility,” he said.

Ahmed Soliman, Horn of Africa Research Fellow at Chatham House, told Al Jazeera that both the AU and Ethiopia’s neighbors “play an important role in mediating conflict between the parties and leading them to a ceasefire and dialogue”.

However, he added that the Pan-African bloc “is in a delicate situation, with its headquarters in Addis Ababa, and decision-making requires a coalition of interested people”.

Soliman said the regional body, the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), has also called for a ceasefire but “has hindered its ability to act”.

“This is because the current president, Sudan, is in turmoil due to the recent military coup, while its bilateral relations with Addis Ababa have deteriorated significantly – both of which mean it has not been able to intervene,” Soliman said.

Sudan has had a dispute with Ethiopia over a massive hydroelectric dam built by the latter on the Blue Nile, with the two countries also locked in a dispute over the use of fertile farmland near their border.

In addition, IGAD’s Executive Secretary, Dr. Workneh, is a former Foreign Minister in Ethiopia, and a close aide of the Prime Minister. [Abiy Ahmed] – therefore will not be seen as a neutral negotiator,” Soliman said.

Emmanuel Quasi Anning, research director at the Kofi Annan International Peacekeeping Training Center, agreed with Soliman, insisting that the AU should do all it can to resolve the conflict.

“This [AU] There is a tight corner between a rock and a hard place. It is a guest for the people of Ethiopia and it has to live up to this criterion to bring the parties together. I know that earlier attempts have been rejected. There are doubts about the current initiative. But I think that the African Union should, by all means, become one of the key holders in trying to bring the warring factions together,” Anning told Al Jazeera.

“Not much time. The opposing forces have given a befitting reply.” “The forces trying to get into Addis seem to have the momentum. Addis’s rhetoric reflects growing desperation. And I think there will be a lot of fanatical forces within the Tigrayan and Oromia forces that will take a quick and decisive turn in Addis. want to enter.”

Tigris forces and allied Oromo fighters have declared victories on several battlefields in recent weeks, but the central government accused them of exaggerating their territorial gains and insisted that the conflict was “not in the capital”. is coming”.

Communications disruptions and restrictions on access to journalists in northern Ethiopia have made it difficult to verify the claims of both sides.

According to the United Nations, rights groups have accused both sides of atrocities in a conflict that has displaced millions and left hundreds of thousands in famine-like conditions. This week, UN officials also warned that hundreds of people have been surrounded since the government declared a state of emergency in November, with millions living “at a knife’s edge” in northern Ethiopia because of the humanitarian crisis. deepens.

The warnings came two days after Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta, who has also participated in regional mediation efforts for a ceasefire and lamented a “lack of meaningful dialogue”, visited Addis Ababa on Sunday and held talks with Abiy.

His visit came as United States Secretary of State Antony Blinken arrived in Kenya this week during his first visit to sub-Saharan Africa. It will follow several visits by US Special Envoy for the Horn of Africa Jeffrey Feltman to both Nairobi and Addis Ababa, which have had little effect.

Blinken told reporters on Friday that he was “very concerned about Ethiopia’s potential to be trapped” and threatened to impose sanctions against the Ethiopian government and their Tigrayan rivals unless they moved forward on talks.

According to Hassan Khanenje, director of the Horn International Institute for Strategic Studies, the threat of sanctions could help compel the warring parties to compromise and strike an agreement.

“They [Uhuru and Obasanjo] “Could communicate potential incentives, but also sanctions if the conflict continues… if the message is loud enough, it’s going to have an effect,” Khannenje told Al Jazeera.

“In the absence of any kind of pressure and of course encouragement, it is going to be difficult to reach a resolution of the conflict,” he said. “Sanction is always an aspect of forcing the parties to behave responsibly but it is not enough. Bringing the parties to the negotiating table is not enough. It is therefore important to consider incentives for those parties who are willing to make a deal.”

Follow Hamza Mohammed on Twitter: @hamza_africa