In Ukraine, Greece tossed aside years of caution — and upset Greeks

ATHENS — Greece is going all-in on the West — and Greeks are grumbling with dissatisfaction.

After Russian troops poured into Ukraine in late February, Greece was one of the first EU countries to announce it would send Kyiv arms to help it fight off the invaders. It came a day after Russian airstrikes killed at least 10 ethnic Greeks in Ukraine, members of a historic community of 150,000 dating back to the 18th century. 

Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis stood up before parliament and declared that his government was fully committed. 

“There can be no equal distances,” he said. “You are either with peace and international law or against them.”

While the shipments — mostly rifles and anti-tank missiles — were hardly enough to alter the balance of the war, they quite symbolic back home. In a matter of days, Mitsotakis had dramatically upended Greece’s long-standing aversion to getting involved in foreign conflicts. And his move stood out in a region where other countries have gone the other way, trying to serve as a mediator instead of an arms supplier.

While the current Greek government has been drifting militarily closer to the U.S. and Western allies in recent years, the alacrity of the arms shipment still struck some as a step too far. 

Large portions of the population reacted with surprise — Russophile sentiments remain in parts of Greece, given the centuries of religious, military, economic and cultural ties between the two countries. And the political opposition also condemned the approach, arguing it endangered Greece’s ability to maintain stable ties with the disparate countries around them. 

In a poll published Monday, roughly 70 percent of Greeks called the decision a mistake. In another survey, 63 percent said the decision may prove to be dangerous for Greece.

The backlash may be having an effect. Last week, Greece turned down an informal request from Ukraine for Soviet-era TOR-Μ1 and Osa-AK missile systems, according to government officials. One official said no more arms shipment should be expected from Greece.

New doctrine

Greek society is not accustomed to such direct military interventions abroad. 

Even during the wars in Yugoslavia in the 1990s, which brought conflict into Greece’s neighborhood, Athens only allowed NATO systems to transfer through its country, taking a cautious stance in providing direct military aid. 

Similarly, during the war in Afghanistan, Greek forces only helped build infrastructure and distribute humanitarian aid. They were never involved in front-line operations against the Taliban. 

Greek society also has historical ties to Russia, a fellow Christian Orthodox nation that helped the Greeks fight off Ottoman rule in 1821. More recently, Moscow has been viewed as a protector in Greece’s long-running rivalry with neighbor Turkey. 

Mitsotakis met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in December and Foreign Minister Nikos Dendias was among the last to meet his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov just days before the invasion.

However, the Greek mantra was changing during that period. 

“Greece,” Mitsotakis declared in the Greek parliament, “is the last outpost of the West.” 

Constantinos Filis, director of the Institute of Global Affairs and a professor of international relations at the American College of Greece, described the shift as “two choices.”

First, he said, Greece decided “it cannot depend on the EU and NATO to secure itself from Turkey” — it also needs bilateral military deals to boost its own capacity. Second, he added, “Greece under the current government has decided to get more deeply involved and put its hand in the fire, even with boots on the ground.”

On the first point, Greece last September signed a major defense deal, which included commitments from Athens to purchase at least €3 billion worth of French warships, as well as a clause on mutual defense assistance. Greece’s conservative government has also renewed a defense agreement with the U.S. that grants American forces open-ended access to four pivotal military bases, frustrating Russia. 

Elsewhere, it assisted Saudi Arabia’s intervention in Yemen’s civil war, sending Greek soldiers and Patriot missiles last year.

At home, Greece has argued it must bolster its military amid growing tensions with Turkey in the Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean Seas.

Analysts noted that Greece’s heightened willingness to help out abroad can help it at home. Not only does it let troops gain conflict experience, but it also gives Athens more standing to ask others for military help. 

Mitsotakis made the same argument after sending weapons to Ukraine. Apart from being “morally just,” he said, the decision also benefits Greece’s national interests. 

“With what moral standing would we ask for similar assistance if we found ourselves in the same position?” he said in a recent interview. “We have an additional reason, compared to other European countries, to be on the right side of history,” he added, making a clear reference to Greece’s tense relationship with Turkey. 

Cutting off the Greek bridge

That’s not how everyone sees it. 

Opponents counter that sending military equipment to Kyiv automatically positions Greece directly against Russia, without at the same time ensuring Western guarantees against Turkey. Greece, they say, can’t rely on the U.S. or NATO to oppose Turkish aggression, despite the government’s decision. They point to the equal stance policy NATO has adopted in several crises between Greece and Turkey, including the most recent in 2020.

The sentiment is common. In a poll conducted after Russia’s invasion, 71 percent condemned the invasion, but 65 percent said Greece should remain completely neutral. And in a POLITICO poll, 60 percent of Greeks agreed that the Russian invasion was unacceptable, the lowest figure among the six countries polled.

Given these dynamics, the government’s decision “was not made lightly,” said Emmanuel Karagiannis, an international security expert at King’s College London. 

Several factors fueled the Greek shift toward Russia, he said: The EU’s swift response to the Russian invasion, the Russian bombardments that killed the ethnic Greeks, and a broader desire to signal to Turkey that its territorial claims won’t be tolerated. 

But, he added, “as a result, the Russian-Greek relations have reached a new low with unknown consequences for regional security.”

Other countries in the Eastern Mediterranean region have tried to maintain an allegiance with the West, while also keeping a door open to Russia. Putin has taken advantage of this during his time in power, establishing a greater Russian presence in the Mediterranean and Middle East. 

Since the start of the war in Ukraine, Turkey and Israel have been playing the role of mediator. Turkey is the only NATO member that hasn’t joined the West on sanctions. Israel has also refused. Both have tried to broker talks between the two sides. 

Within Greece, Alexis Tsipras, leader of the main opposition party Syriza, quickly condemned the Russian invasion, backing tough sanctions on Moscow and humanitarian aid for Ukraine. But he said that by providing arms, Greece effectively gave up its ability to be part of the effort to bring peace between Ukraine and Russia.

“The subversion of the old doctrine … that Greece has a political home in Europe but also wants to have a bridge role with the other political powers, and its replacement with the Cold War mantra that ‘Greece is a Western outpost,’ does not benefit our country,” said George Katrougalos, Syriza MP and a former foreign minister.

Katrougalos argued that Greece’s “maximalism” with Western allies has not created any benefits. He pointed to a recent U.S. decision to withdraw support for the East Med gas pipeline, a €6 billion project that could have brought revenue to Greece, after a dispute over whether the pipeline would run through Turkey. 

“Our country benefits when it pursues a multidimensional foreign policy, and not when it appears to be taken for granted in the context of relations that are not characterized by reciprocity,” Katrougalos said.

Several retired senior army officers have also gone on TV in Greece to vehemently oppose the Greek arms shipments to Ukraine. “Harmful, unnecessary and silly,” said one. 

A senior defense official even sent the signal that sending Ukraine Greece’s S-300 anti-aircraft missile systems may “weaken the country’s defense.”

“Greece has to follow a multidimensional foreign policy, act as a bridge between politicians and states,” said Filis, the American College of Greece professor. “It cannot close its door to China, Russia and other emerging powers.”

Given the increasing bipolarity of the global order, however, such a balancing act will only grow more difficult.