Mediators step up Ethiopia ceasefire bid as aid efforts flounder

Efforts to halt humanitarian access and pimp Ethiopia’s year-long civil war have gathered steam in recent weeks as the shores of the northern Tigre region close to the capital city Addis Ababa.

But rhetoric between the insurgents and the government continues, and there is no end to the humanitarian crisis that has left seven million people in need of humanitarian aid across northern Ethiopia.

The situation is particularly dire in the Tigre, where a months-long government blockade of humanitarian and commercial supplies has pushed nearly half a million people to the brink of famine.

Hundreds of thousands of people are also struggling to receive humanitarian aid in the Amhara region, where Tigrian forces have captured an increasing amount of territory in recent weeks while trying to break a federal blockade.

Last week, the UN chief of emergency relief, Martin Griffiths, said Ethiopian officials told him that trucks would soon be allowed into Tigre, while rebel forces have promised to protect warehouses and facilitate aid efforts in parts of Amhara controlled.

But a humanitarian official in Ethiopia said “nothing concrete” had yet been agreed with the conflicting parties in terms of increasing aid to the two regions. And analysts say talks could lead to some sort of ceasefire.

“There is still hope that a [ceasefire] Maybe, but no one should rely on it,” said a diplomatic official in Addis Ababa, who spoke anonymously. The aid officer also requested anonymity, citing the risk of speaking in sensitive context.

The Tigre conflict began in early November 2020 after months of tension between the government and the region’s ruling party, the Tigre People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), which has dominated Ethiopia’s national politics for decades until Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed took office in 2018. supremacy was maintained.

The current mediation efforts are being led by the African Union’s envoy to the Horn of Africa, former Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo. He left Ethiopia last week after meeting with government and Tigreyan leaders.

Some Ethiopian ministers have suggested they are open to talks. For example, Dina Mufti, spokesperson for the Ministry of External Affairs, said Negotiations can take place if the rebels withdraw from areas outside the Tigre and accept the legitimacy of the federal government.

But TPLF-aligned rebels are unlikely to accept those terms because withdrawing the Tigre would mean giving up their current military advantage – without any guarantees that the blockade would be lifted.

While diplomatic efforts continue, the Ethiopian government has ordered mass arrest of ethnic tigress across the country. Among those detained were 16 local UN activists – the latest aggression against an already disrupted relief operation in which senior officials have been exiled and major aid groups suspended.

In a town called Sendafa – close to Addis Ababa – people recently displaced from the Amhara called for an end to the conflict, although some questioned how they would live with their Tigrayan neighbors again.

“I hope everything stabilizes,” said 42-year-old Jamal Seid, who was able to flee the city of Mersa with 10 family members last month as the Tigrayan rebels advanced. “The country will be peaceful when everyone stands up” [together] for Ethiopia. ,

Tigre: ‘Worst place in the world to live’,

The recent diplomatic activity comes just weeks after Ethiopia’s government launched a new military offensive against rebels, who in June succeeded in pushing back federal forces and its allies from Tigre.

However, the government’s offensive is now over, and – after taking a series of towns – Tigreyan forces have captured some 300 kilometers north of Addis Ababa: a city of five million people.

The rebels have also forged an alliance with the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA), an armed group from Oromia – Ethiopia’s largest region – and established ties with it. other opposition groups who are demanding a transitional government.

Abiy’s government has described reports that Addis Ababa could be dangerous, although it has ordered a nationwide state of emergency and called on residents of the capital to be prepared to protect their neighbourhoods.

As the conflict spreads, the human condition reaches a catastrophic level. More than 5 million people are in need of aid in Tigre, an area described last week by UN relief coordinator Griffiths as “probably the worst place in the world to live at the moment”.

The Tigreon invasion in Amhara and the northeastern Afar region has also displaced hundreds of thousands of people, and there have been reports of – The New Humanitarian. documented by – NS sexual violence and mass murders.

“In many homes, children go to sleep without eating.”

Although the Tigrayan force Say They are prepared to facilitate humanitarian aid in areas of their control in Amhara, as insecurity and other operational issues have prevented aid groups from distributing supplies to everyone who needs it.

A temporary release of aid in two areas can make a big difference. Large quantities of supplies sit in Amhara towns occupied by Tigreyan forces, while hundreds of trucks wait to get to Tigre as well.

Nevertheless, barriers to human access remain, especially in Tigre, where no trucks have entered since 18 October. According to The United Nations’ emergency aid coordination body (OCHA), headed by Griffith.

“It’s just a nightmare,” another humanitarian official in Addis Ababa said on condition of anonymity. The authorization to move supplies and personnel to Tigre has become an even greater burden in recent weeks, the official said.

Medical supplies in Tigre now almost completely exhausted, starving to death are rising, and banking services, telecommunications and electricity are cut off. Aid workers say people have survived on savings, remittances, and help from neighbors – but they can only go so far.

Meanwhile, in Amhara, people described weeks of suffering in rebel-controlled cities where little aid has arrived. “In many homes, children go to sleep without food,” said a resident who recently fled the town of Veldia. His testimony was shared to The New Humanitarian through a local contact in Bahir Dar, the capital of Amhara.

last ditch diplomacy

Although various diplomatic efforts are currently underway, AU’s Obasanjo is seen as the best candidate to broker a ceasefire, having recently visited both Tigre and Addis Ababa.

The TPLF had previously expressed skepticism towards the AU, arguing that the body – headquartered in Addis Ababa – is biased towards the government. But still the rebel officer described described his discussion with Obasanjo as “very helpful”.

The former Nigerian president said that both parties believed their differences could be resolved politically, and have since Called To stop their military offensives to allow continued negotiations on them.

Nevertheless, the prospect of an agreement remains uncertain: federal officials say they will not engage in negotiations until the Tigreyan forces have ended the attacks and withdrew from the Amhara and Afar, while the Tigre’s leadership. They say they will not stop fighting until the blockade is lifted.

“Unless Prime Minister Abiy and his allies are willing to take measures to provide assistance and restore banking services to Tigre… the International Crisis Group,” said William Davison, a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group.

There are other obstacles as well. Tigre’s leadership refuses to recognize the legitimacy of the central government, while the TPLF has been designated a terrorist organization by the federal parliament, hindering the possibility of negotiations.

“Unless Prime Minister Abiy and his allies are actually prepared to take measures to provide assistance to Tigre and restore banking services … we are just going to see things on the battlefield.”

Regional issues are also thorny. The Baghayan authorities seek to reclaim the western parts of the territory occupied by Amhara forces during the conflict. But Amhara officials are unlikely to give up what they say was illegally occupied by the TPLF decades ago.

Any agreement between the Tigrian forces and the federal government could conflict with the interests of various other rebel groups and anti-government organizations that have aligned with the TPLF in recent weeks.

Forming these alliances is politically important for the TPLF because it gives them “a national agenda” that goes beyond their intentions for the Tigre, said Mohamed Kheer Omar, a political analyst who closely tracks the conflict in Ethiopia. are following.

Such alliances could also provide military advantages to the rebels. The OLA, for example, controls parts of rural Oromia, including areas near Addis Ababa, which they say may soon enter. A diplomatic source told The New Humanitarian that the OLA should not be underestimated, though stressed that their level of military might is disputed.

Will Addis Ababa fall?

Whether the Tigris army advances on Addis Ababa remains to be seen. They have threatened to do so if the blockade continues, but they still have no way to reach the city.

Some countries, including the United States, have urged their citizens to leave Ethiopia altogether, while others are waiting to see if talks are still possible.

Abiy’s government has said reports of insurgents moving into the capital are exaggerated, although a growing number of tigresses have been arrested in the city since a state of emergency was declared earlier this month.

Without some sort of confrontation the rebels would be unlikely to enter Addis Ababa: Abiy still enjoys considerable support in the city, while the TPLF is remembered for decades of autocratic rule – a deep resentment that reignited. hinders capacity.

Omer, the analyst, said officials in Amhara – Abiy’s main support base – would also be unlikely to accept the TPLF-OLA takeover, although he does not believe that it is Tigreyan’s aim to gain power at the national level. “Amhara will be the biggest loser and is unlikely to accept defeat,” Omar said.

For now, Tigrayan forces are focusing their efforts on controlling a major highway connecting Addis Ababa to neighboring Djibouti. Capturing the route – which runs through Afar – would block trade to and from the capital, and put further pressure on Abiy.

But that objective is far from over, with the rebels facing resistance from federal and regional forces, as well as the problem of hot, flat terrain that leaves them exposed to government air power.

“despite the fact that [Ethiopian army] Weak enough, clearly they must have kept some reserve to protect that important strategic corridor,” ICG’s Davison said.

As conflict parties consider their next steps, the number of displaced survivors of the war continues to grow in cities such as Sendfa, just 40 kilometers from Addis Ababa.

Thirty-year-old Alemu Melesi said he is living with his aunt, who shares everything she has with her family. They recently fled the Amhara city of Kobo, where residents accused Tigran forces of killing hundreds of civilians in early September.

Despite the circumstances, Melesi said he still has hope for Ethiopia’s future: “There will be a day when peace will prevail and we can go back to our land.”

Philipp Kleinfeld reported from Bamako. Edited by Andrew Gully.