Russia Sanctions a Boon for Chinese Arms Sales to Africa?

Russia has long been the biggest arms exporter to sub-Saharan Africa, but a new study indicates Western sanctions are making arms sales harder for Moscow, opening the door for more Chinese-made arms. Are.

Even before the Ukraine war, China had increased its arms sales to sub-Saharan Africa, exporting nearly three times as much arms to the region as the United States between 2017 and 2020. reports This month by The Atlantic Council. The lion’s share went to just five African countries where China has invested heavily in its flagship infrastructure programme, the Belt and Road Initiative.

For example, in 2021, Nigeria – which is fighting an Islamist insurgency and spent $4.5 billion on its military that year – bought 34.4% of its weapons from China, with Russia accounting for more than 6% and the US accounted for – while still the largest arms exporter globally – just over 2%.

Atlantic Council researchers say this trend is likely to continue.

“Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine could open up additional opportunities for Chinese military influence in Nigeria. International sanctions in the wake of that invasion could limit the benefits of Nigeria’s 2021 agreement with Moscow for military equipment and training – and could mean an increase in Nigeria’s arms imports from China,” the report said.

“US sanctions on several Russian defense contractors are forcing Nigeria to consider alternatives: China is clearly the default option as China and Nigeria’s growing ties over the past few years have also made China Nigeria’s top arms exporter Granted, has left Russia behind in arms exports. for two consecutive years,” it found.

China, Russia are exporting arms to Africa

The Atlantic Council estimates that between 2010 and 2021, Russia will account for 24% of all arms exports to sub-Saharan Africa, China for 22%, and the US for 5%. China’s arms exports peaked in 2013, the year the Belt and Road Initiative was launched.

Oluwole Ojewale, a Nigerian researcher at the Institute for Security Studies, told VOA that there were two reasons behind Nigeria and other African countries turning to China for arms. One, he said, is the fact that China is generally Africa’s largest trading partner. Second, Chinese arms sales – unlike US arms exports, which are governed by the International Traffic in Arms Rules – do not come with conditions attached.

“It is looser on the part of Russia, on the part of some of these autocratic countries, than on the US side,” he said, noting that in the past Nigeria has turned to Russia for arms in its fight against Boko Haram. Because the US was concerned that their weapons could be misused.

Paul Nantullia, a research associate at the Africa Center for Strategic Studies, said Atlantic Council data showed a “huge jump” in Chinese arms sales recently compared to previous figures.

“I believe the sanctions imposed by Russia, by the Russian government, by Russian defense companies are clearly a boon for China… China actually stands to benefit,” he said, “strategically China and Russia are indeed competitors when it comes to arms on the African continent.

“I think one also has to mention the fact that African countries are quite disappointed to see the Russian hardware on display in Ukraine, especially tanks and heavy weapons,” Nantulya said. “He hasn’t done very well.”

In terms of what African countries are actually buying, Nantulia said that initially, Rwanda bought China’s “Red Arrow” missile system, and Namibia bought patrol crafts and attack ships from China, as did Algeria. has done it. China has always had a monopoly on arms and training in Tanzania, he said, and in Cameroon, the country’s naval assets have been equipped with high-caliber Chinese guns.

The Atlantic Council noted that China has also graduated from selling mainly small arms to selling heavy weapons to Africa, and Nantulya noted that “Unmanned aerial vehicles have become a very popular defense article among African militaries. “

sell drone buy jet

This year, the government of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, which is fighting a rebel movement in the east, Bought nine Chinese attack drones.

The DRC is reportedly looking to buy fighter jets and just last week a high-level delegation from the China-Africa Aero-Technology Import and Export Corporation based in Beijing was in Kinshasa to discuss a deal with People’s Liberation Army officials.

Thomas Nudik, a defense journalist with the US-based War Zone defense technology website, told VOA that Russia has nothing to compare China’s drones with. Armed drones, he said, are good for situations like insurgency – which abound in Africa – and countries are turning to China to buy them because “the US export guidelines, especially for armed drones, are extremely strict.”

He added that China is also selling more aircraft, where Russia used to dominate.

“The Chinese footprint in terms of arms sales has been growing rapidly even before the war in Ukraine,” Nudyk said, “however, now because of the war,” the Russian arms industry is struggling to meet even its domestic needs. “

Asked for comment on its growing arms exports to Africa, the Chinese embassy in Washington referred questions to the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Beijing, which did not respond. The Chinese mission to the African Union also failed to respond to a request for comment, as did an AU spokesperson.

As well as military hardware, China also provides regular training for African forces, as does the US.

A US State Department spokesperson told VOA, “For decades, the United States has made sustained efforts to build defense capability, particularly through professional military education, grant aid, security agreements, joint exercises, training and military exchanges.” This commitment has been demonstrated through

Regardless of where they buy their weapons, analysts say both Western-supplied weapons and Chinese weapons could fall into the wrong hands or be used in human rights abuses.

The US sells billions of dollars worth of weapons to Saudi Arabia, an autocratic regime that has been accused of rights abuses in the war in Yemen.

“It matters little where the governments of African countries choose to buy weapons. We need to underline that regardless of the source, weapons can still fall into the hands of organized criminal groups, including terrorists,” Ojewale said. Are included.

As African governments increasingly turn to more sophisticated weapons such as attack drones and missile systems, analysts expect rebel and terrorist groups to upgrade their weapons to keep pace.

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