The war in Ukraine calls for an increased African unity – SAIIA

How Africans voted on the Ukraine war is a sign of a plurality of views [in the continent], If the weather forecast is a cold front, it is likely that African countries will be put under immense pressure to choose sides. We know what happens next, and we’ve been there. It would be better to stay united and be alert.”

Above mentioned Citation From Carlos Lopes, a professor at the University of Cape Town, reflects on the impact the war in Ukraine is having on Africa’s international relations. From February 2022, Russia and Western powers have increased their presence on the continent. Africa showed a wide range of views on the war, Russia, Ukraine and the world. Nevertheless, a degree of unity may enhance the continent’s ability to avoid the tendency to be part of global disputes as a proxy.

africa is one Theater For disputes between the West, China and Russia. In 2022, the leaders of Germany, France, the United States and Russia met with some of their key African allies. Since then, African states have been prompted to take sides. While there is unlikely to be a unified position on every topic, this is an opportunity for African states to identify areas of agreement if they are to survive in an ideological battleground like the Cold War.

Dealing with the dramatic impact of war on food security

With an increasing number of African countries facing issues of food security, the war has exacerbated an already vulnerable situation. This directly affects global food supply chains, particularly grain and fertiliser, where Ukraine and Russia are major international players. In April, the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) showed that its food price index reached its highest level since the late 1990s, mainly affecting African countries.

The June visit of Senegal President Macky Sall and AU Commission Chair Moussa Faki Mahamat to Russia shows that when the continent takes a coordinated approach, it can reap greater benefits. African pressure – example of this journey of Moscow – led a mediation process by the United Nations and Turkey to ensure continued access to grain and fertilizers from Russia and Ukraine. Black Sea Grain Initiative, often under Threatreduction in food prices by 15,To provide much needed relief during the period of rising global inflation.

The war in Ukraine affected political relations between African countries, the West and Russia. For Russia, its deteriorating relations with the West have forced a new political offensive on the continent, in hopes of regaining its global influence, exploiting new markets and boosting political support. The aim of the West is to combat what it calls “Wicked influence from Russia in Africa” ​​and created a new impetus to gain Africa’s support.

Relations with Russia: Challenges and Opportunities

Sanctions imposed on Russia by the West have created an opportunity for Russian businesses in Africa that do not have access to many global markets. With a growing population, massive space for development and vast resources, the continent is an ideal location for Russian businesses looking to survive. However, Russia’s trade with Africa is dwarfed by that of other global powers. as well as USD 14 billion In total trade with the continent in 2021, it is a fraction of what has been seen in the West or China.

Economic ties do not reflect the entirety of Africa-Russia relations. Instead, most of Russia’s actions in Africa are political or military in nature. More than 20 African countries have signed military agreements with Russia in the past decade. Many are experiencing political instability and armed conflicts. cameroonFor example, one of the latest was the signing of a military agreement with Russia in April 2022. Since 2016, Cameroon has faced a separatist civil war between its francophone and anglophone communities. According to a Swedish think tank, 44% of all arms traded by African countries in 2022 came from Russia Sipri,

In addition to traditional military agreements, Russia is notorious for using mercenaries in conflict zones on the continent. Wagner Group, a notorious Russian private military corporation, has played controversial Roles in Mali, Sudan, Libya and the Central African Republic (CAR).

Wagner is accused of aiding Russia by exploiting the instability, along with multiple allegations of human rights abuses and economic exploitation. U.N. in October 2021 Having said The civilians in the car were harassed and threatened by members of Wagner. Reports allege that the Wagner Group has nexus with the military junta of Sudan to exploit the gold mines in the country.

Dissecting Africa’s responses to war

African responses to the war in Ukraine have been far from united. In March and October 2022, the United Nations General Assembly voted on resolutions condemning the invasion of Ukraine and Russia’s annexation of four regions of Ukraine. In March, 26 African countries voted against, did not vote, or were not in the room during the vote; In October, 24 African countries abstained from voting or were absent from the room. Equal numbers in both votes indicate that the continent showed the most divide of any region regarding the war in Ukraine.

The challenges of using voting patterns to explain African conditions are exemplified by South Africa, one of the countries that “active non-alignment” Arriving. South Africa abstained from voting on all resolutions condemning Russia’s actions in Ukraine. On the one hand, senior South African officials, including the defense minister, visited Russia during this period. On the other hand, the country in recent months Also involved in high-level dialogue with Western countries, including presidential visits to the United States and the United Kingdom. Is Pretoria hedging its bets?

It is important to note that the engagement of African governments in international organizations does not necessarily reflect public opinion. Relations between African countries and Russia are centered on high-level dialogue. A forthcoming paper from SAIIA reflects on how Africans view Russia’s role on the continent. The study assesses sentiment in social media in several African countries, showing that whether there is strong opinion for or against Russia in the continent, sentiment turns out to be largely neutral.

Amid global controversy it is difficult to predict the future of the African role in international relations. Much will depend on how the Ukrainian war ends and Russia’s ability to project an overall impact. Regardless of the outcome of the war, it is important that the continent ensures that it does not become a pawn in the global power contest. And for this to happen, African countries must know what they want from their international relations and promote clear efforts to achieve their goals.