Tigray conflict: A call for peace before Ethiopia is turned to a Libya of east Africa.

The ongoing Tigre conflict in Ethiopia has been described by observers as a taste of déj vu and an imminent Balkanization. The East African country is headed for a deep turmoil, and the events of the past weeks are a clear warning that the two major warring parties, the Ethiopian federal government and the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), and their allies are heeding calls for peace. needed. Before they sink the second most populous African country into another Libyan-like state.

The conflict began on 4 November 2020 when Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed ordered military operations in the Tigre region. He claimed that he did so in response to an attack on a military base by TPLF insurgents. The reaction was the culmination of a months-long conflict between the Abiy-led central government and the TPLF leadership.

Since 1994, the country has run a federal system, with different ethnic groups controlling the affairs of the 10 territories. A political party, the TPLF, was the key element in setting up this system. It led the coalition that ruled Ethiopia since 1991 after a military regime pulled out. The four-party alliance brought many positive changes and stability to the country, but there were also growing concerns about human rights abuses and suppression of dissenting voices.

This later escalated into protests, leading to a major reshuffle in 2018 with Abiy Ahmed as the current prime minister. Within his short period in power, Abiy made significant reforms that earned him national and international acclaim, including the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019. His liberal politics and radical reform programs ended a long-running regional conflict with neighboring Eritrea.

While his popularity grew for these laudable achievements, prominent leaders of the Tigrayan government sidelined themselves and perceived his approach as a move to centralize power. Discontent grew in September 2020 when Tigre held its regional elections in protest against the central government’s postponement of national elections.

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In its response, the central government stopped funding Tigre, a move that was later regarded as a “declaration of war”. Unfortunately, what started as a political struggle has now turned into an endless struggle with thousands of deaths and displacements.

A few days earlier, as TPLF rebel forces and their allies closed in on the capital, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed traveled to the front lines and vowed to lead Ethiopian troops into battle themselves. “We will not give up until we have buried the enemy,” he claimed.

In response, a TPLF spokesman claimed Abiy’s leadership was “holding on our people” and vowed to continue the rebels’ “harsh advance”. The ego-driven standoffs of both sides explain why conflict is so difficult in Africa’s second most populous country.

a joint investigation It has been shown by the Ethiopian Human Rights Commission and the Office of the United Nations High Commission for Human Rights that all sides in conflicts have committed violations that may amount to war crimes.

While the exact toll of the economic and human impacts is hard to claim, there is clear evidence that the recession is devastatingly worrying. In just a little over a year, thousands of people, including children, have died of starvation. In addition, it has increased Refugee crisis in East Africa, because more than 60,000 people have fled the country and about two million people have been internally displaced.

There has been alleged gender-based violence against girls and women and other human rights and refugee rights abuses. More than 5 million people in the Tigre, Amhara and Afar regions are said to be in urgent need of humanitarian aid. Much needed aid has been very slow in reaching the victims. In August, the United States Agency for International Development Accused Abi’s government At a time when the food houses were “nearly empty”, access to Tigre was “obstructed”.

“The shortage is not because food is unavailable, but because the Ethiopian government is disrupting humanitarian aid and personnel, including land convoys and air access,” USAID chief Samantha Power alleged.

Such examples illustrate why the country is facing its worst famine-like crisis in decades. Although the first manned convoy (of about 40 trucks) entered the Tigre area in more than a month, it is considered That still requires 100 trucks a day to meet the most basic needs of the current local population.

The continental and transcontinental international community has called on both sides to toll the peace line, but neither side is willing to listen. Abiy’s expression suggests that there is a suspicion that the international community will want to remove him, as his administration has described efforts by foreign governments. meddling, So, it seems that he has resolved to take a winner-all measure to approach the conflict. TPLF and its Tigre Defense Forces (TDF) There appears to be no value in the talks, especially given its recent progress.

The United States and the European Union once halted aid to Ethiopia to see the conflict end, but now sanctions have been put on hold to give room for talks to bear fruit. At the continental level, the African Union (AU) is also taking diplomatic steps to end the conflict. Intervening in the crisis is an unusual ally of the Ethiopian government, Eritrea, whose institutions and officials have played a destabilizing role in the conflict. The United States recently sanctioned the Eritrean military for its roles in peacekeeping in crisis.

Abiy’s journey from international acclaim to condemnation has been so swift, and so has Ethiopia’s status from a peaceful, progressive nation to a war-torn country. As the only non-colonial country in the continent, its deep sense of independence and independence, along with its recent economic progress and political reforms, make Ethiopia the pride of Africa. Many countries in the Horn of Africa and continent-wide look to it for leadership. its overly ambitious developmental measures It has also been cited as a model worthy of emulation by other countries.

Unfortunately, there are downsides to war. ruined the country’s economy and derailed its trajectory, as it now faces some of the greatest human tolls, including famine. Fears also grow that the country is increasingly leaning towards East Africa’s Libya, particularly in terms of growth and conflict-induced decline that may draw striking parallels between the two countries.

Like Ethiopia, Libya was for many years one of the fastest growing economies in Africa and was considered one of the richest countries in Africa. Revolt of 2011 Which led to civil war and international military intervention. Today, the once oil-rich North African country is now a shadow of itself, a socioeconomically retarded state, and a hotbed of human trafficking and modern slavery.

The Tigre conflict can also be seen as a flavor of déj vu, particularly as the conflict took on a similar dimension with the bloody breakup of Eritrea from Ethiopia three decades earlier. Thousands of Eritrean Soldiers and Civilians final price paid, and many other human costs were recorded in the war of self-determination that lasted from 1961 to 1991.

Considering the zeal with which both sides have pursued the war and the successes recorded so far, a compromise with either side may be a sign of weakness for their followers. However, given the devastation already seen and the impending turmoil, the agreement at this point of time should be seen as a show of strength. military coup situation in neighboring Sudan and appears to be forever Humanitarian crisis in Somalia This has put a substantial burden on the Horn of Africa, and therefore adding to it the Tigre conflict is unbearably devastating on the already enormous civilian population of the region.

It is high time that elites from all sides of the conflict came to the negotiating table and made a settlement for posterity. Negotiations should not end only on achieving a ceasefire, but should promote reconciliation of conflicting historical narratives, mutually beneficial power-sharing threads at regional and central levels, and a self-determination crisis to settle territorial disputes and grievances.

Materials Manufactured and Supplied By: Pietas-Post (via Opera)
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